“The Paris Agreement”. UNFCCC, unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement UNFCCC. “What is the Kyoto Protocol?” unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol Titley, D. (March 20, 2020). Why is the global change warming limit of 2 degrees Celsius so important? From theconversation.com/why-is-climate-changes-2-degrees-celsius-of-warming-limit-so-important-82058 One. (n.d.). About the Montreal Protocol. Excerpt from www.unenviornment.org/ozanaction/who-we-are/about-montreal-protocol Jaiswal, A., Doniger, D., Kaur, N., & Chanrashekhar, V. (January 9, 2020). Phase-down of HFCs. Excerpt from www.nrdc.org/issues/phase-down-hfcs Kyoto Protocol Fast Facts. (2020, April 8).
fromwww.cnn.com/2013/07/26/world/kyoto-protocol-fast-facts/index.html An RF time series depends on atmospheric concentrations and is therefore not a simple scaling of the associated GWP-weighted emission time series. As shown in Fig. Fig. 2, the RF of the ODS reaches its peak in the baseline scenario around 2003 with a value of 0.32 W·m−2 and slowly decreases by a total of 0.005 W·m−2 by 2010. Over the same period, RF values for CO2 are expected to increase by 0.2 W·m−2 to ≈1.8 W·m−2. In the world avoided by MR74, ODS-HF represents between 45% and 90% of CO2 in 2010 (Table 1). In the NMP87 scenario, the ODS-RF is in a lower and narrower range close to 35% of the CO2 value in 2010. Emissions avoided under the Protocol (NMP87) will have reduced climate FH by ≈0.3 W·m−2 in 2010, corresponding to ≈17% of the contribution of anthropogenic INCREASES in CO2 in 2010. When assessing the avoided worlds of scenarios MR74 and NMP87 in the 1990s and beyond, it should be borne in mind that without the Montreal Protocol, most ozone-depleting SUBSTANCES would almost certainly have been included in the Kyoto Protocol because of their significant prP, which affects the provisions and timing of the Kyoto Protocol. Waiting for the regulation of ozone-depleting SUBSTANCES with the Kyoto Protocol would probably have delayed the achievement of what the Montreal Protocol is supposed to achieve by 2010. A delay was to be expected, as the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol would likely have entered into force when ODS uses and emissions were higher than in the early 1990s, making reductions economically and virtually more difficult. The climate impact of ODS regulations is assessed by comparing GWP-weighted ODS emissions and RF values resulting from these emissions (Fig.
2 and Table 1) with corresponding values for anthropogenic CO2 emissions derived from observations and the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (25, 35. GwP weighting is commonly used to assess the relative climate impact of emissions of different gases (by mass) and forms the basis of the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol (36). The GWP of the main ODS ranges from 5 (methyl bromide) to 11,000 (CFC-12), much larger than that of CO2 (the CO2 weighting is unitary). The relative importance of greenhouse gas accumulation for climate change is assessed using the RF metric, which is defined as the difference with the beginning of the industrial era (1750) (25). The refusal of the United States and China to sign the treaty has made it more difficult to achieve the kyoto Protocol`s targets. According to the International Energy Agency, China and the United States emitted the most carbon dioxide in 2017, 9.3 GT and 4.8 GT respectively (“each country`s share of CO2 emissions”, 2020). Despite these difficulties, the treaty was adopted in 2005 and many countries have been participating in it to control certain greenhouse gas emissions for almost 15 years. Accurate and mandatory records are communicated by a chain of regulators to track the success of each country. Changes are frequent in protocols, most recently the Doha Amendment, which was in force from 2013 to 2020. This was the second amendment to the Kyoto Protocol that added nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) to the greenhouse gases covered and facilitated stronger individual commitments (Erback, 2015).
GWP-weighted (left) and RF (right) emission scenarios for all ODS, HCFCs and HFCs for the period 1990-2050. The calculated GWP-weighted emissions (100-year time horizon) and associated RF values for all ODS in Figure 2 are presented on an extended scale. Additional curves show the contribution of HFCs and the growth of HFCs under an IPCC business-as-usual scenario (5) and as in the older and more uncertain SRES A1B and B1 scenarios (25). All emissions are standardised to the equivalent of GtCO2·year−1 by their GWP. Under the control of the current Montreal Protocol, developed countries will reduce the use of HCFCs by 99,5 % by 2020, with phase-out in 2030, while allowing developing countries to increase the use of HCFCs by 2016 and then continue at this level until their expiry in 2040 (8). For reference, the level of the reduction target for the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (see legend of Figure 2) and the magnitude of possible additional emission reductions for ODS and HFCs that can be achieved by 2015 are presented. All RF values represent the net changes from the beginning of the industrial era (≈1750) to the present day. The HFC-RF contribution in 2010 is ≈0.02 W·m−2, which is small compared to the other scenario differences discussed here. Data on HFCs prior to 2000 are based on observed concentrations (5). The MR74 and NMP87 scenarios are presented as simple estimates of the worlds avoided by events and regulations to examine the fundamental consequences for climate protection. To indicate that uncertainty in these scenarios increases with the post-first year period due to unrecognizable factors, the scenario nuances in Figures 1 and 2 are modified after 2010.
Using these scenarios, we recognize that others could be proposed. For example, we do not take into account the possibility that the production of ozone-depleting SUBSTANCES could have been reduced without early warning and without the Montreal Protocol due to preventive climate protection. Our scenarios show what could have happened without other national regulations, international agreements or public measures. .
- On April 17, 2022